A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
